Some assorted Census/demographic items from recent days:

DC’s population is closing in on 600,000 residents.  One of Ryan Avent’s commenters (rg) notes the historical issues with the accuracy of the Census Bureau’s annual population estimates for cities and urban areas:

Building on what Eric wrote: throughout the late 1990s, the Census Bureau estimated that the District was hemorrhaging population, right up to the 1999 estimate. Lo and behold, when they actually conducted the Census in 2000, it turned out that the 1999 estimate was off by tens of thousands of people: in 1999 the Census Bureau estimated the District’s population was 519,000; the 2000 Census counted 572,000 people in the District!!! They were WAY OFF in 1999. I write this not to trash the Census Bureau but to note that their estimates can be quite suspect. In the case of urban areas, it seems that their methodology, at least in 1990s, was biased against urban areas. So, do not be surprised if the actual 2010 Census count is much higher than this 2009 estimate.

This is indeed true.  The 1990 Census put DC’s population at 606,900.  That same year, the population estimate for the city pegged the population at 603,814 (the decennial census is a snapshot of the nation on Census Day, April 1 of each 10th year – the population estimates are supposed to be a snapshot of July 1 of each year…), and things went downhill from there, at least in terms of the estimates:

Year    Population    Change
1990    603814
1991    593239    -10575
1992    584183    -9056
1993    576358    -7825
1994    564982    -11376
1995    551273    -13709
1996    538273    -13000
1997    528752    -9521
1998    521426    -7326
1999    519000    -2426

This decade hasn’t seen the same massive declines from year to year, yet it remains to be seen if the positive signs from the population estimates will translate into the same kind of bump seen from the 1999 estimate to the 2000 Census.  Compare the previous decade to this one:

Year    Population    Change
2000    571744
2001    578042    6298
2002    579585    1543
2003    577777    -1808
2004    579796    2019
2005    582049    2253
2006    583978    1929
2007    586409    2431
2008    590074    3665
2009    599657    9583

Either way, the 2010 Census effort will be vital for the city.

More is better: Various folks chime in on the new growth  – Loose Lips, taking note of the Post’s article, for example.

D.C. Council member Jack Evans (D-Ward 2), whose district stretches from Georgetown to Shaw, gave credit to former mayor Anthony A. Williams (D) for the city’s apparent population rebound. Williams, who was in office from 1999 to 2007, set a goal in 2003 of adding 100,000 residents in a decade. Williams invested heavily in development, improving city services and reducing crime.

“The whole image of the District of Columbia began to change from a dangerous, dirty, unsafe place to a very different city,” Evans said.

Council member Jim Graham (D-Ward 1) dates the changes to 2005, with the construction of thousands of downtown apartments. The ensuing influx, Graham said, changed the character of his ward, including neighborhoods near the Columbia Heights Metro station, 14th and U streets, and the eastern end of the U Street corridor.

“We’ve always felt that we were having this population growth, but it just wasn’t being reflected in the data,” Graham said.

Indeed – and the best way to get the data to reflect the on-the-ground reality is to have a strong showing for the 2010 Census.

Domestic Migrants: Ryan Avent and Matt Yglesias look at the primary cause in the uptick in DC’s population – domestic migration.  People are moving here, as a net positive, for the first time in a long time.

Data Types: Jarrett Walker notes some changes in the way detailed economic and transportation data will be collected and organized.

Overall, the neighborhood-level American Community Survey is going to be a great thing.  It will present in rolling averages of the last five years, so it will show a bit if a lag, but it’s an important step.  You can’t fix what you can’t quantify.

That last sentence brings to mind one of the City Paper’s quotes of the year, from former City Administrator Dan Tangherlini:

Optimism without data is really just an emotion.