Forecasting uncertainty in practice: Snowperbole

Example of snow forecast communicating levels of uncertainty; image from the Capital Weather Gang

Because making accurate predictions is extremely difficult, we can dramatically improve both the accuracy of forecasts and enable effective communication about the forecast by embracing the uncertainty involved in the forecast. This allows decision-makers to both use the information available while

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Snow perspective, in graph form.

Since we’ve now eclipsed the seasonal record, it’s worth noting how unusual it is for DC to get lots of snow in a season, to say nothing about snow storms coming back to back.  Let’s look at the history:

We’re now well above that blue star for the 1898-99 season record.  As Gabe Klein noted on

Continue reading Snow perspective, in graph form.

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